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Democracy in Iran: “Tipping point to come”

Posted in Irshaddering Thoughts on Dec 26, 2009

Last June, I tweeted this message to my followers: “Heard from connected friend in #Tehran that many say this is beginning of end for clerics - new generation now awake. Tipping point to come.”

Six months later, at the close of 2009, I believe my friend is right.  The tipping point for democracy in Iran is coming, and it could arrive as early as this week.

The Ahmadinejad regime has banned major memorials for the late reformist, Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, which are (or were) to take place on Sunday. But that day also coincides with something  nobody can squelch: Ashura, the most meaningful moment in the Shia Muslim calendar.

That’s when Shias around the world commemorate the martyrdom of the Prophet Muhammad’s grandson, Hussein, who entered battle against a Muslim tyrant named Yazid. Hussein knew he would be massacred, but decided that it’s more dignified to challenge authoritarianism for the sake of social justice than to live on your knees.

Welcome to the transcendent paradigm that drives so many of Iran’s pro-democracy activists. Couple that with the passing of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, who “died at exactly the right time” according to Iran scholar Rasool Nafisi, and you can see why young dissidents are finally being joined by older people of faith as well as progressive clergy.  Such a coalition could be potent; even unstoppable.

We’ll know that Iranian democrats have reached a tipping point when Khameini’s street thugs, the Basij, are bludgeoning clerics in droves. In fact, they’ve already started attacking the holy. More of those crackdowns mean, quite simply, that more mullahs are marching in the democracy movement. This will lend not just numbers but also cred to the uprisings.

No wonder one of the biggest stories in 2009 is bound to make international headlines in 2010.  “Inshallah,” as we Muslims say, “God willing.” Of course, the people must be willing first. For, as the Quran tells us, “God does not change the condition of a people until they change what is in themselves.” (13:11)

For more of my analysis, here’s a recent discussion about Iran between me and a journalist with The New York Times on PBS “Worldfocus”: